# Data for Future TMY

Meteonorm integrates future climate projections to support planning and
decision-making under climate change. These projections are based on data from **15
global climate models** from the [CMIP6](https://wcrp-cmip.org/cmip-phases/cmip6/)
(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6),
using **three future scenarios** known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in
combination with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP):

- **SSP1-2.6** (RCP 2.6): optimistic scenario (low emissions, strong climate policies)
- **SSP2-4.5** (RCP 4.5): middle-of-the-road scenario (moderate policies)
- **SSP3-7.0** (RCP 7.0): high-end scenario (limited climate action)

More extreme scenarios (Meteonorm 8 contained RCP 8.5) have not been included as they are
generally considered unrealistic.

The goal of future TMY is not to predict exact weather, but to provide **statistically averaged
climate trends**, with minimized model uncertainty through the use of ensemble means.

Only three parameters are adjusted for future scenarios: air temperature, global irradiance
and precipitation. The other parameters remain the same as for "normal" TMY.

Only anomalies of 20 year
averages (differences between the future and today’s climate) are stored. Our anomaly dataset
has a spatial resolution of 1x1° and a temporal resolution of 10 years. For example, 2050
represents the climate of the period 2041–2060. The anomalies are added to todays’s Meteonorm climate values
for the chosen location and time period to obtain future climate values.

**Global irradiance** values show small to limited increases for SSP1-26 (only partially
significant), minimal changes in SSP2-45, and global decrease in SSP3-70. This is due
mainly to the change of aerosols (de-fossilizing also leads to lower emission of
aerosols).

For **temperature**, all scenarios project significant warming, with
strongest increases in the arctic due to sea ice melt and positive feedback mechanisms. For
**precipitation**, there are increasing trends, especially near the equator and polar
regions.

Future data can be accessed by setting the `future_scenario` and `future_year` query
parameters in the `/climate/tmy` endpoint.

![features-future-fig1](./features-future-fig1.png)
**Figure 1:** _Anomalies for GHI and scenario SSP2-45 for 2050 (2041-60) compared to 2010 (2001-20)._